I have written, that I don’t care if the GOP stays around or not. I still don’t. I know some want to keep it, and if it continues and returns to nominating conservatives, I’ll continue to vote for GOP candidates.
But there is a lot of talk about stopping Trump through a brokered convention. As we sift through the remains of last night’s primary elections it is clear that only 2 candidates could possibly make it to the magic number of delegates to secure a nomination before the GOP Convention. But neither of them are considered GOPe candidates.
It’s possible for both Cruz and Trump to make it to the convention without the nomination. It’s harder for Cruz to get the delegates. That is especially true if John Kasich stays in the race for much longer. It is impossible for Kasich to win enough delegates to secure the nomination before the convention. The only reason for him to stay in the race is the hope that somehow he leaves the convention with the nomination after a deal is brokered. That would be a bad idea for the GOP.
The only way a GOP exists after a brokered convention is if the nominee that comes out of there was one of the 2 who had a shot to get the nomination if the others had dropped out.
The way the convention works, the delegates that are generally pledged to each candidate must vote for their candidate on the first ballot. If no nominee is selected, they are free to change their vote in later ballots. If you want a GOP to exist after the convention, Trump and Cruz delegates should keep voting for their candidate. The delegates that are pledged to the candidates that have no path to the nominations, the ones that should have dropped out, those are the ones that should be allowed to change their vote. Any other scenario will have Cruz or Trump voters crying foul.
In 2012 the GOP added a rule that basically says any nominee must win 8 states in the primary process to be considered the nominee. As I understand it, that was added to make sure Ron Paul didn’t have a shot in 2012. That rule, if allowed to stay, would insure that all the delegates from the suspended campaigns would be free to vote for one of the two remaining campaigns… not for Kasich if he is still in the race. Some say that this rule will be removed before the vote. But who knows. If allowed to stay, and interpreted strictly, it would mean that Kasich could not be the nominee, and any delegates for the other candidates can vote for any candidate with more than 8 state wins; Trump or Cruz.
If Rule 40(b) is struck down, and anyone but Cruz or Trump emerges as the GOP nominee, the Republican party is finished. It will fracture and split. That may not be a bad thing in the long run. But if Republicans want to exist beyond this election cycle, the only way to do it is select from Trump or Cruz in a brokered convention.
But maybe one of them will get the 1237 delegates secured by then, and a brokered convention won’t happen.