Well, I had been writing this before the debate last night. But that last question where each GOP candidate pledged again to support whoever the nominee is… sort of ruined it. Even so, fun to speculate:
Super Tuesday has come and gone. With a few surprises, Donald Trump won most states, but also under performed in most states. Is it too late to stop him from entering the GOP convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination? Maybe, maybe not. But aside from Carson mostly dropping out, the field of GOP candidate won’t get any narrower until it will likely be too late. There is no way Kasich drops out before Ohio and no way Rubio drops before Florida.
There is a good chance… unless things turn… that Trump will be the GOP nominee. I cannot believe I typed those words. He is not a conservative. He does not represent me. But, the GOP hasn’t really represented conservatives for a while. We vote in Republicans, and then they continue to do big government things and get nothing we want done. We haven’t been happy with the GOP for a while. That’s part of the revolt against the “GOPe” that’s going on, ironically it’s part of what’s fueling Trumps popularity. It started with the tea party, then that got side tracked and squashed. Whatever. If we put up Trump as the nominee, I am done with the GOP.
Period, end of sentence. Done.
In our current 2 party system, that means my 3rd party vote is a waste in November. But what if we could use the opportunity to destroy the 2 party system and bring some options to our elections? Ross Perot tried it, and that failed horribly; but this is 2016. No one knows what is gonna happen. I hear rumors of people like Bloomberg from NY running 3rd party. Imagine if there were 4 viable candidates? Trump, Clinton, Bloomberg, and … ? Bloomberg is a long shot, and really, if Clinton gets indicted and drops out… also a long shot… who knows what happens to the Democrats. Can you say Biden vs Trump? The only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain in this election.
Looking at the GOP field, who could run independent/3rd party and have a chance? Who has money and support, but isn’t too tied to the GOP? The only candidate is Ted Cruz.
I have gone out of my way to not endorse any candidate. I obviously tried to derail Trump with what little influence I have. But I have never said who you should vote for on this blog. And I’m not endorsing Cruz, per say, as much as saying he would be infinitely better than Trump or Clinton. Sadly, our 2 party system lends itself to voting for the less undesirable of 2 candidates most times. In a scenario where Cruz is a viable 3rd candidate, he will do the least harm to our nation, and has the most chance of getting elected. So I’m not endorsing him, as much as saying for the sake of our nation we should support him.
That goes for the primary as well as the general election. If you vote in the GOP primary, vote Cruz. If he runs 3rd party, vote for Cruz. He is the only one who can possibly beat Trump in delegates, and he is the only one who can beat both Clinton and Trump in a general election. Kasich doesn’t have a chance. Rubio appears very tied into the “GOPe” and couldn’t swing the support. Doesn’t matter if he is a part of the “establishment” or not, he looks that way. Only Cruz could do it.
Now, before you jump down my throat about Cruz’s campaign antics I would urge you to remember: no candidate is perfect. I felt he should have handled the Iowa/Carson issue differently. He ended up having to fire his communications guy anyway over that Rubio video. His campaign has made mistakes, and done some stuff I don’t like. I’m not saying he’s my perfect candidate. I’m saying if I have to choose between Cruz and Clinton or Trump, I pick Cruz every single time. And so should you.
Yes, a 3rd party run of a popular conservative could split the GOP vote and give the election to Clinton. I’d hate to see that happen. I really do think that a true conservative like Cruz could position himself in a way to win the general election. I’d love to see a poll on that. Here’s the rub: at least with Clinton we know what we’re getting. She will do what she always does, placing herself above the needs of the nation. we’ll have 4 more years of policies similar to Obama’s, with gridlock in Congress, and then have another election. Not the best option. But is it better than a Trump presidency? At least we know what we get with Clinton. Trump is a wild card.
I am not saying I want Clinton as president. I am saying that I will not vote for Trump, and I think Cruz could beat Trump and Clinton with a properly run campaign. Add a 4th person running as a liberal, and all bets are off.
But what if Trump gets fed up with the RNC shenanigans, and runs as 3rd party? Again, Cruz would still be running against Trump and Clinton.
Of course, after the GOP debate last night, no GOP candidate will run 3rd party, they all said they would support the nominee. The only hope of a 3 person race would be for Trump to bail and run independent. Or another liberal to jump in. Regardless, I will never vote for Donald Trump.